Weather

50-year storm shaping up off the coast - meteorologists say winter '09-'10 could be 'the BIG one'
Truckee
Call it what you will: The slump buster. The drought-ender. The fat girl (or guy) who just wants a ride home from the bar.
We call it...
El Nino.
...Because winter '09-'10 is set to be the biggest El Nino winter since '97-'98 — we're gonna kick it off with a Chris Farley classic.
....For those of you who don't habla Espanol, El Nino is ...'THE NINO'.
We know, we know — you hear it every year.
...Some chamber/business alliance/hospitality industry hokum about pending winter being the 'biggest ever'.
(...Actually we prefer when they say 'best ever' — what does 'best' winter mean, exactly? No avalanches and knowing the bartender at Pete's = best. Winter. Ever?!)
But — this one, it's, well, shaping up different. This one's the effin keeper.
This. Is. El Nino.
El Nino comes 'round when the water temps in the Pacific get warm... and they're warming, a lot.
From the National Weather Service: Sea surface temperature anomalies increased for the fifth consecutive month, with above-average temperatures extending across the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of May.
Accordingly, the latest weekly SST indices ranged between +0.4o to +0.5°C in all four Niño regions.
Subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies also continued to increase in response to a large area of above-average temperatures near thermocline depth
These surface and subsurface oceanic anomalies typically precede the development of El Niño.
Late 2009 should be considered the heart of the emerging full-blown El Nino event, and it could linger through 2010.
The La Nina (the opposite effect, cooling water temps) has hung 'round the Sierra on and off since about '02-'03 ...producing mind-numbing amounts of one-and-done storm systems and ...not a whole lotta blower.
That's changing now.
...And it has to do specifically with (ready — wait for it) this damn rainy start to summer you all've been complaining about.
Meteorologist Rhett Milne of the National Weather Service Reno office said he and his contemporaries started seeing the waters warm in mid-May when the spate of rain storms first swing through the Basin.
Waters off the coast started to heat up — atypical for this time of year.
“When you do have a quick summer season increase, those do have the potential to become strong, well-constructed El Ninos,” Nevada state climatologist Jeff Underwood told the AP. “The month of June is usually completely quiet. This is a real unusual situation and it's unusual to see this any time in the summer. You have to go back 40 or 50 years.”
BOOM.
Hear that Bodhisattva, it's the 50-year storm at our doorstep.
While climatologists are reluctant to go on record whether they just pre-ordered a pair of Moment Comis... it looks like this, in fact, may be it.
“We're kind of at the tipping point,” Redmond said. “We've had El Ninos that have brought both wet and dry winters to Reno.”
Last El Nino (aforementioned '97-98) brought big, early snow to the basin (100'-plus by mid-January)...the one before that ('83) caused flooding, mudslides and berms of snow in Truckee so big... some locals refer to it as "Tahoe's Last Winter."
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